Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine

We've revised up our 2023 GDP forecast from 4.2% to 4.8% y/y to reflect stronger recent GDP estimates. According to the Ministry of Economy, GDP grew by 9.1% in September, or by 5.3% y/y in the first nine months of the year. But growth will wane in Q4 when statistical base effects become less supportive. Consequently, we now anticipate GDP growth at 5.1% next year. This projection assumes ongoing conflict as well as likely lower volumes of Western financial support, a significant downside risk to our GDP, inflation, and exchange rate forecasts.