Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - New Zealand

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - New Zealand

Our estimate for New Zealand GDP growth in 2022 has been raised to 2.7% following a Q3 upside growth surprise. But the outlook for 2023 has worsened due to inflation triggering tighter monetary policy and natural disasters buffeting momentum. We now expect a recession over the first half of the year, with output unchanged over 2023 before growth picks up to 2.7% in 2024.