Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia

We expect the economy to stagnate this year, down from 1.1% growth seen three months ago, as downward revisions to Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 GDP outturns weighed on the annual forecast. The economy was in a technical recession over H1 and while output picked up over Q3 according to the flash estimate, we expect the subsequent rebound to be only gradual. Tight monetary policy, unfavourable external environment and delayed pick-up in consumer spending will all keep a lid on the pace of the rebound, with 2024 GDP growth seen at 2.5%.