Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq

We maintained our forecast for GDP growth of 3.9% for 2023, while watching for any further cuts in oil production for the year other than the pledged 211,000 announced in April. Iraq's breakeven oil price is estimated at $75.8pb, so we expect the recent hike in Brent crude surpassing $90pb will offer some respite to the fiscal budget. That said, the oil exporter faces constraints on its growth, with the non-oil sector suffering amid the water crisis that has left key sectors such as agriculture stagnant.