Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada

Tighter monetary policy over the past 18 months has finally begun to dramatically slow momentum in Canada's interest-sensitive economy. We believe the economy has slipped into a moderate recession that will last through Q1 2024. Noise from wildfires and strikes meant Q3 GDP likely fell by less than we expected, which has prompted a 0.1ppt upward revision to our growth forecast to 0.8% this year and a slightly shallower 0.4% contraction in 2024.