Country Economic Forecasts - Romania

Country Economic Forecasts - Romania

The flash estimate indicates that Q4 2021 GDP contracted by 0.5% q/q, a weaker-than-expected result driven by a poor performance in retail sales following the outbreak of the Omicron coronavirus variant. However, Covid cases have begun to fall in February, and the government are expected to begin easing restrictions in March if the number of infections continues to decline. The GDP contraction in Q4 means there is less carry-over into the start of 2022, leading us to lower our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.9%.