Analysis by Region - MENA

Analysis by Region - MENA

We've raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Turkey by 0.5ppts to 3.5% y/y and expect the economy to slow down to a below-consensus 0.6% next year, albeit with upside risks. Domestic demand is moderating, but hasn't corrected as sharply as we previously expected so far. Consequently, in our updated baseline we assume flat rather than negative q/q growth in Q3, with GDP only declining in Q4.