Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Panama

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Panama

The rebasing of Panama's national accounts led to 10.8% GDP growth in 2022, well above our forecast and that of consensus. The revision also showed stronger-than-expected momentum in H2 last year and brought a higher statistical carry-over into this year, which lifted our 2023 GDP forecast by 2.5ppts to 5.7% growth. However, we believe that risks remain tilted to the downside as a global slowdown will dent exports and the investment that led sturdy growth in the decade prior to the coronavirus pandemic.