Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia

We've raised Croatia's 2023 GDP forecast by 0.9ppts to 2.8% following strong consumer-driven growth in Q2. Large savings accumulated during the pandemic have supported consumption despite elevated inflation, although cracks are appearing in other parts of the economy. Goods exports are normalising after surging last year, while fixed investment, particularly in housing, is slowing from the impact of higher ECB rates. This will also weigh on GDP growth in 2024, which we anticipate will slow down to 1.2%.