Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil

August's monthly GDP release undershot our below consensus forecast, confirming a services-led slowdown in growth momentum. Our GDP forecast for 2023 is 3% and for 2024 is 0.2%, but risks are tilted to the downside. In Q4, we expect a trend of consecutive monthly contractions, led by a protracted period of tight monetary policy. This will result in a much weaker-than-expected carryover into next year, which will ultimately force consensus to converge to our near-null 2024 growth forecast.