Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba

We have raised our 2023 GDP forecast for Aruba by 4.7ppts to a 0.1% y/y decline as we believe tourism will continue to recover. That said, we expect the economy to contract this year because inflation will erase some of the nominal gains in consumption and investment. The tourism industry is expected to return to its pre-crisis level by early next year, supported by the return of cultural events and various growth projects in development. Therefore, we anticipate growth of 1.4% in 2024.