Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco

Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco

Revised real GDP figures show that the Moroccan economy did not enter a recession in H1 2023, but rather that quarterly growth was subdued in Q1 and contracted in Q2. On an annual basis, though, the economy still grew by 3.4% y/y in H1 2023, compared with 1.3% y/y in H1 2022, supported by an uptick in household consumption as the agricultural sector showed promising signs of recovery. It is within this context that we have raised our real GDP growth forecast by 0.3 bps to 1.9% this year. That said, consumer confidence was bleak during the first half of this year, and consumer borrowing grew at a reduced pace. It also looks as if volatile rainfall conditions will pose a challenge in the upcoming cropping year, while still weak eurozone growth will keep a lid on export demand.